discretely distributed
Made it through chapter 5 of Hassett and Stewart, which details six discrete probability distributions whose properties I would like to be able to commit to memory. For each, where $X=k$ is the random variable where $k$ events are drawn from the distribution, the probability mass function, expectation value, and variance are as below.
distribution | $P(k)$ | $E(X)$ | $V(X)$ |
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binomial | $${n\choose k}p^k q^{n-k}$$ | $$np$$ | $$npq$$ |
hypergeometric | $$\frac{{K\choose k}{N-K\choose n-k}}{N\choose n}$$ | $$\frac{nK}{N}$$ | $$\left(\frac {nK}{N}\middle) \middle(1-\frac KN\middle) \middle(\frac{N-n}{N-1}\right)$$ |
Poisson | $$\frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k} { k!}$$ | $$\lambda$$ | $$\lambda$$ |
geometric | $$q^k p$$ | $$\frac qp$$ | $$\frac q{p^2}$$ |
negative binomial | $${r+k-1 \choose r-1}q^k p^r$$ | $$\frac {nq}p$$ | $$\frac{nq}{p^2}$$ |
In each of these cases, $P(S) = p$ is the probability of single success, $q=1-p$ is the probability of a single failure, and the remaining parameters are as follows:
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- binomial
- Sampling from a total of $n$ independent trials, the probability of $k$ successes.
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- hypergeometric
- Sampling "without replacement" from a finite population $N$, of whom $K$ individuals are "successes." Here $P(k)$ is the probability of $k$ successes drawn from the subpopulation, out of $n$ total samples.
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- Poisson
- Here $P(k)$ gives the probability of $k$ completely independent events, in a scenario where the mean number of events over many such scenarios is $\lambda$.
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- geometric
- A series of independent experiments is repeated until the first success; $P(k)$ is the probability that there are $k$ initial failures.
Here it's useful to know the cumulative distribution function $$F(n) = \sum_{k<n} P(k) = 1-q^n$$ as well. There are lots of opportunities for fencepost errors.
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- negative binomial
- Extending the geometric distribution to the question of whether the $r$-th event is preceded by exactly $k$ others.
I don't know whether it will be useful to know other cumulative distributions.1
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Note added [2025-07-02 Wed]: The Poisson CDF sucks. ↩